The problem The first win goes uncemented.
Why it happens The win goes uncemented: generic congratulation, a five-job receipt, then silence. Comprehension and absence, not value, are the blockers.
The behaviour we are driving They make a second transaction, a bid or a buy-now, within 30 days, and they grant a channel at the win so the 30-day sequence can reach them.
The job to be done “Celebrate my win, tell me it is real, and make the next one obvious.”
Q4 marketing model, Business Case tab, exported 29 Sep 2026: volumes checked by Analytics 8 Sep 2026; organic and target rates measured against holdout and confirmed by Analytics; a buyer's month valued at £30 an upgrade, 1.29 upgrades in a first-purchase month and 1.67 after; net is gross at the 23% take rate.
| Model row | Worked volume a month | Rate | Value per active month | Gross a year | Net a year | Q4, driven | Q4, in quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New first-time buyers (inflow about 5.2k a month), the highest-churn-risk slice of the active base GROW | 5,162 Michael's measured count, 10 Sep: 5,162 contactable first-time winners a month, Buy Now first-timers included. Ruled 10 Sep: any first purchase counts as a first win, so Buy Now is in; auction-only would be about 3,500. | 33.8% vs 26% organic | £30 an active month (one upgrade) × 1.43 months × 12 a year | £165,822 | £38,139 | £3,239 | £2,223 |
Q4 2026: £3,239 net on the driven basis (Oct £0, Nov £0, Dec £3,239); £2,223 landing inside the quarter. Driven: months active credited to Q4, pro rata by days live from the launch, the basis the Q4 V2MOM carries. In quarter: only the months that fall in October to December (Tony, 10 Sep 2026: the forecast Marketing submits). Net is gross at the 23% take rate. Launch 1 December 2026.
Success metric Share of first-time buyers who bid or buy again within 30 days of the first win.
Still to confirm Organic 5% is the repeat-purchase curve, not a holdout read (item 6); re-read the 85% soft opt-in capture now the toggle is ticket-only. One post-win programme in the model: Journey 6 is counted here, and the instant-win variant sits inside the row
Ladders to Build the Habit Loop: first-time buyers who bid or buy again within 30 days of the first win, 33.6%. Metric moved Second purchase within 30 days %. Evidence B, benchmark. Shared Journey 6 (one post-win programme in the model; counted once, here).
The planned case, a 30% lift in conversion, as presented to the board on 23 Sep 2026 (the Sizing tab behind the model's Business Case tab): volumes checked by Analytics (Ivi, 8 Sep 2026); organic and target rates measured against holdout and confirmed by Analytics; a buyer's month valued at £30 an upgrade, 1.29 upgrades in a first-purchase month and 1.67 in later months (the 20 Sep change; the earlier £172k counted one upgrade a month); net is gross at the 23% take rate (agreed 8 Sep 2026). Source: Q4 2026 Marketing Model, Business Case (output) and Sizing tabs, exported 2026-09-29 (the live model). Every figure is incremental of the customers who would have returned anyway: worked volume × (target rate − organic rate) × months active × times a year × value per active month.
Each engineering-row chip is coloured by the ask: APP AND JOURNEY OWNED COMPUTED TRAIT · ANALYTICS EXISTS · PIPE TO BRAZE NEW EVENT · ENGINEERING BUILDS READY · NOTHING TO BRIEF
| The moment | Phase 1, ships now | Phase 2, waits on engineering | Who builds it |
|---|---|---|---|
on the map: 1 · The win beat, celebrated once The win push, enriched in place | native push The generic congratulation becomes recognition and reassurance: a first-win copy branch, the realised saving where the payload carries it, and a confirmed-upgrade line. | Nothing waits | Backend engineering · logic changeDesign · copy only |
on the map: 1 · The win beat, celebrated once The surprise-charge variant, wins at the open | native push The identical congratulation becomes charge-and-timing reassurance: what happened, what was charged, when they travel. | Nothing waits | Backend engineering · copy only, native sendDesign · copy only |
on the map: 2 · The receipt: the ticket-bearing email The receipt, cut to one job | email Five competing calls to action collapse to one job, in a redesigned receipt that puts a win banner above the ticket card and keeps the ticket… | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildDesign · copy and creative |
on the map: 1 · The win beat, celebrated once The celebration, on the surface that exists | in-app The won ending on the auction close card leads with confirmation, then the saving, then sequences into the one capture ask. | Nothing waits | App engineering · app changeAnalytics · computed traitDesign · copy and creative |
| The designed celebration screen | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | native screen or modal The designed celebration screen ships: the buy-now buyer's first celebration moment, and a purpose-built home for the confirmation-first message. | App engineering · new surface |
on the map: 3 · The consent ask at peak trust The one capture ask at the win | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | in-app The scattered consent asks become one ask at the win, sequenced after celebration under the ruled ladder, with the contradicting re-prompt deleted and one shared decline… Engineering rows D8 | App engineering · new eventDesign · copy and creative |
| The habit arc for auction and instant winners | push, email Thirty days of silence becomes the habit arc: a day-1 push-led saved-amount recall, one call to action per touch, no offer, no incentive. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed trait |
on the map: 6 · The habit arc, then a quiet exit The light arc for repeat winners | push Repeat winners get one light re-book prompt instead of the first-timer stack, with comeback recognition and a repeat-modal fatigue window. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildDesign · copy only |
| The practice-bid re-onboarding for buy-now and instant-first buyers | push, email No onboarding becomes the practice-bid arc from day 3: the practice go first (touch 1), then the real bid (touch 2), exempt from the travel floor,… | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze buildAnalytics · computed trait |
| The not-armed arc | Nothing ships in Phase 1 | content card The unreachable half gets an in-app card arc carrying the same habit beats, shipped as one launch-blocking pair with the impression-and-click instrumentation fix. | App engineering · new surface, new eventBraze · Braze build |
| Day 30 | canvas logic Episodes end deliberately: a transaction exits to the pre-travel journey, the day-30 non-converter hands to neutral re-booking, a refund suppresses everything, and the episode flag clears… Engineering rows D7 | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze build |
| Power users | Suppression is the treatment: the habit arc and every chase stay silent. | Nothing waits | Analytics |
| Refunded or cancelled wins | Suppress all, hand off, clear the episode. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze build |
| Recurring batch sends exclude owned episodes | The canvas writes the episode flag; every batch send filters on it; the seasonal weekly is the first proof case. | Nothing waits | Braze · Braze build |
The words are on the journey map above. A D number opens that row of the Engineering brief; the engineering board uses the same numbers. Live sends not named here continue unchanged. Before anything in this journey goes live: The capture and card events land before the holdout starts; The instant-win event audit closes; One owner at the win window; Broadcasts stand down for owned episodes; The consent class of the receipt's forked ask.
| The question | Owner |
|---|---|
| Ratify the consolidation (jointly with the pre-travel journey's extraction), the survey-in-addition working assumption, the capture re-prompt deletion, and the day-1 default for armed auction winners. | Sheran |
| The canonical second-transaction definition, then the holdout, minimum detectable effect and runtime for the headline test. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| Does an instant win emit a distinct enterable event in Braze, and does the same event partition buy-now from bid wins? | Blocks launch Engineering and Product |
| A date or an honest no on the two app builds: the celebration screen, and the content-card placement paired with its instrumentation fix. | Blocks launch Engineering and Product |
| Name the event that marks a real bid, so the practice arc exits on a real bid only: practice bids are not instrumented and must not end the arc. | Blocks launch Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| Do the two live post-upgrade survey campaigns (standard and ride-share variant) suppress each other, and what is the actual send delay? | Lisa, and the Braze developer |
| Verify the three legacy receipt variants are not firing. | Lisa, and the Braze developer |
| The marketing opt-in baseline volume, and the early-winner first-timer split. | Analytics: Ivi and Ben |
| # | The ask | Hand back | Start here |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Settle the canonical second-transaction definition: two circulate (the portfolio’s 5 to 7.5 percent rate and the repeat-bid 7.03 to 8.8 percent), different windows and denominators. Then size the headline test’s holdout, minimum detectable effect and runtime. | The definition, then the sized test. | The measurement position on the Campaign brief. |
| 2 | Build the four traits, nightly on the standing pattern: win type, first win against repeat, the real power flag, and the travel-completion floor proxy. | The traits live in Braze. | The Engineering brief’s traits band. |
| 3 | The opt-in baseline and the early-winner split: sizes the capture ask’s addressable audience and the surprise-charge cohort’s copy branch. | The two volumes. | The capture and win-at-the-open rows on the matrix. |
| 4 | Reconcile the quick-return window against the six-week median before the canvas clock is evidence-locked. | The reconciled read. | The day-30 row on the matrix. |
The holdout must read journey lift separately from targeting, because entry is behaviour-selected; and until the correlation token lands, every results claim stays attributed, not incremental, and is labelled so.